Welcome to the first edition of Election Watch, an irregular evidence-based look at the coming General Election.

I'll be working on a major new project relating to the election in the next few weeks, details of which to come soon. But in the meantime, I thought it would be fun to do a regular blog of evidence-based tidbits about the elections, looking at the latest data and reflecting on possible outcomes generally, and for science.

Polls are like snow-flakes
The papers have excitedly reported that a Yougov poll this weekend shows the Conservatives sitting just 2 points ahead of Labour, a result which if repeated would leave Labour still the largest party, though without a majority.