Today my family and I had the delightful privilege of having Joel Watts (possibly known to readers as Polycarp of the blog The Church of Jesus Christ) and his family spend time with us, first at the public library and then at home.

As if this weren't enough of a treat, we had a visit from another family after they left. They just showed up in our back yard. We caught it on video:

It's a question of whether we're going to go forward into the future, or past to the back. -Dan Quayle This is my last day writing before my spring break begins, and I'm hoping for some great weather as I prepare to head to the Oregon coast. Warm weather, clear skies... I can picture it now. In my dreams, it looks something like this. It makes me think about global warming, the greenhouse effect, and whether this is really cause for concern or not. On one hand, it's definitely true that heating the planet up by even a few degrees will have catastrophic effects on our sea levels as the ice sheets over Antarctica and Greenland melt, displacing hundreds of millions of people and causing worldwide changes in the production of our food supply. For example, if the sea level rises by just 60 meters (that's a partial melting of those ice sheets), all of the areas in red on the map will go from being (mostly habitable) land to being underwater. Click to enlarge, of course, and note that huge sections of the U.S., India, China, England, and coastal Europe will be underwater. So that's one hand. But on the other hand, could changes to the atmosphere really be the cause of changes in temperature? In all honesty, it's hard to answer that question just from looking at Earth. Luckily, we have some other, nearby worlds to help shed light on our situation. Let's take a look at the planets of the inner Solar System: Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. Mercury is the closest to the Sun, and gets awfully hot, topping out at about 450 Celsius (840 Fahrenheit) during the hottest part of the day & year. And as you might expect, of the four rocky planets we have to look at, Mars is the coldest. But if you look at the hottest part of Mars during the hottest times, it can get all the way up to about 27 Celsius (81 Fahrenheit), which isn't too bad, considering how much farther away it is! As you'd expect, Earth is cooler than Mercury but warmer than Mars. And I bet that you'd expect Venus -- being closer than Earth but farther away than Mercury -- would have temperatures in between Mercury's and Earth's. Well. It turns out that Venus has an average temperature of about 460 Celsius (860 Fahrenheit), with no significant differences between day and night temperatures, even though a day on Venus lasts about 117 Earth days! What gives? Venus is about twice as far from the Sun as Mercury, and therefore receives only about one-quarter of the energy from the Sun for each square mile of its surface as compared to Mercury. So what gives? Why is Venus so hot? If you really want to know, all you have to do is look at Venus' atmosphere. Take a look at the swirling clouds in the atmosphere, and you'll immediately know something fishy is up. Venus has an atmosphere that's something like 93 times as thick as Earth's, and over 96% of that atmosphere is carbon dioxide. That thick atmosphere lets lots of Solar Radiation (visible and ultraviolet light) in. When the planet tries to get rid of it -- just like Earth does -- it re-radiates that energy in the infrared. But carbon dioxide doesn't let infrared light through very well, it reflects it back onto the planet's surface. This is how a greenhouse works, and that's why it's called the greenhouse effect! This is a real effect, it really happens, and everyone agrees that this is the cause for why Venus is as hot as it is. If everyone can agree on this, then the question isn't whether putting carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is going to cause a greenhouse effect: it does. (And people contending otherwise, like this, are wrong, and now you know why.) The real question -- the only one up for debate -- is this: how much of an effect will adding carbon dioxide to our atmosphere cause? Scientifically, it is no longer a question of whether global warming happens when you increase carbon dioxide in your atmosphere: it does. It's now a question of how much carbon dioxide will lead to an unacceptable level of warming for Earth, and what -- as the only species on the planet capable of doing something about it -- we're actually going to do. Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

I had this book with me when I traveled to Melbourne and pretty much couldn’t put it down for the first two days. Now on the bookshelves in Australia, do check it out! Rebecca Skloot on the Colbert Report. The Colbert Report Mon – Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c Rebecca Skloot www.colbertnation.com Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care reform ShareThis

Ben Goldacre, The Guardian, Saturday 20 March 2010 I don’t write about stories where someone has a conflict of interest, in general, because there are no interesting scientific ideas in them: such stories are a way for people who don’t understand the technicalities of science to give the illusion of critiquing it. But it’s still disappointing [...]

An adolescent female orangutan practices her ape stroke.
Image: Anne Russon / New Scientist
Orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) are not the most dexterous of creatures (especially for primates) and this is particularly true when they're in water. Zoos across the country have removed the moats surrounding their exhibits precisely because of their tendency to sink. However, researchers Anne Russon, Purwo Kuncoro, Agnes Ferisa, and Dwi Putri Handayani have just published a paper in the Journal of Comparative Psychology showing how a group of orangutans on Kaja Island in Indonesia have developed an innovative use of their watery foe. Wouldn't it figure that sex had something to do with it? As Russon told New Scientist: My guess is that the male chose the location because there was less chance of him being interrupted by other, more dominant males. However, the orangs appear to have overcome their fear and utilized water for a number of reasons, something that the researchers say reveals important clues about orangutan cognition and sociality. Innovation requires creativity to apply old behaviors to novel situations and the researchers argue that a similar process is at work in Pongo as in humans. Interestingly, it was the mid-rank males who were most willing to innovate. This is probably because it is in the reproductive interests of alpha males to maintain the status quo and they therefore avoid "rocking the boat" or, in this case, coming anywhere near the boat. Mid-rank males, however, have much to gain and little to lose in their efforts to experiment with novel situations. Afterall, since alpha males typically dominate the mating opportunities in a given area, taking a chance with an attractive female could pay off in a big way. I'd be curious to know what the female's role was in all of this. Was she hesitant to follow her young beau into unfamiliar territory? Or did she dive right in, eager to avoid any interruptions from the guy with prominent cheek flanges and an intemperate disposition? Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

.: Just a little something I cooked up while the agarose gels: .: I’d like to put this on a t-shirt, naturally. Any suggestions for reasonably priced custom t-shirt vendors?

When stupid belief systems collide: Amnesty International is calling on Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah to stop the execution of a Lebanese man sentenced to death for "sorcery." In a statement released Thursday, the international rights group condemned the verdict and demanded the immediate release of Ali Hussain Sibat, former host of a popular call-in show that aired on Sheherazade, a Beirut based satellite TV channel.
Source, more. Read the comments on this post...

Under what circumstances should individuals have access to their family members' medical records? How to prevent cannibalism in pheasants Now, THIS is interesting (regarding climate change).... Read the comments on this post...

COPUS (Coalition on the Public Understanding of Science) organizers are thrilled to be supporting the USA Science and Engineering Festival effort, particularly by helping the scientific community connect to the festival in their own community through satellite events. The 2010 USA Science & Engineering Festival (USASEF), provides a great opportunity for COPUS participants to rally together in support of science. Through making this event truly national in scope, we can continue the great grassroots momentum we started with Year of Science 2009. Many COPUS participants and hubs are beginning plans for their Satellite Events. Through partnerships among community organizations like Girl Scouts and 4-H, University student groups, informal science centers, and other scientific organizations, ideas are popping up from coast to coast to celebrate science in style October 23/24, 2010. The best part is that you can keep doing what you have always been doing and we can't emphasize this enough. If you aren't in a place to start a new program, partnership, or project, that is ok! When we all band together as a community, it adds volume to the voice of science. So think about what you can do to bring science to your community or circle of friends in October 2010. You create it - big or small-- and USASEF will help you market it. You can list your event on the USA Science & Engineering Festival web site along with hundreds of other events taking place across the country. Anyone in the nation can check the Festival web site to see what's happening in his or her region the weekend of the USA Science & Engineering Festival. It's a great way to get your community excited about science, and to put your organization on the national map. There is plenty of time to plan -- the USASEF main event will take place on October 23 and 24, 2010. In addition, all satellite event organizers and attendees will be invited to participate in a nationwide activity that will take place at all Festival locations on the same day. We are not sure yet what this science-related activity will be, and welcome your ideas! Sound like fun? Sign up today! To let Festival organizers know that you are planning a Satellite Event, fill out a brief online form. Resources for Satellite Event organizers are available here ~~written by Sheri Potter
Manager, Membership and Community Programs
American Institute of Biological Sciences Community Counts! Join AIBS: CELEBRATE YEAR OF SCIENCE 2009! LEARN MORE HERE. Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

BILLINGS, Mont. -- A federal judge has approved a first-of-its-kind settlement requiring the government to suspend 38,000 acres of oil and gas leases in Montana so it can gauge how oil field activities contribute to climate change. -- The Washington Post's Matthew Brown has the provocative details. Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

This is it: The fate of health care reform will be decided in the next 48 hours. It could come down to a vote or two. And that means that right now, every last message to Congress makes a difference. It's an all-hands-on-deck moment. Even if you've already called and written your representative, it's time to send one last message. If you haven't yet weighed in, now's the time. And please send this on to friends, neighbors, colleagues, former roommates, and anyone who cares about health care reform. A compiled petition with your individual comment will be presented to your representative. CLICK HERE Read the comments on this post...

Captive pheasants Phasianus colchicus frequently practise cannibalism: this isn't necessarily as gruesome as it sounds, but mostly consists of repetitive pecking or picking that opens wounds or results in the removal of toes. In chicks, toe and beak picking are common, while vent, wing and head picking more frequently occurs in older birds. Open, bleeding wounds (when visible) cause the birds to attack again, and they will keep attacking until the victim is fatally injured or killed. All gamebirds practise this sort of behaviour in captivity, but pheasants are by far the worst. Read the rest of this post... | Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

This is your last chance to convince your MP that libel reform is a good idea before parliament dissolves. Politicians can feel like a dispiritingly disengaged shower of till-dippers, but here is one issue that you can care about, and it’s worth one final stab at making them see sense. Our libel laws stifle critical [...]

GrrlScientist sends a link to this rather wild stunt from India: How is it possible? What kind of friction is necessary, and is it any more difficult for the cars to do the stunt than it is for the motorcycles? Before we do any math, I want to think about the problem qualitatively. Let's tally up the forces acting on the vehicles. First, there's gravity. It points vertically downward, straight toward the center of the earth. Second, there's the normal force. "Normal force" means the force normal (in this context a physics technical term meaning perpendicular) to the surface. It's the force the track exerts on the vehicle. It points, as the name indicates, perpendicular to the track surface. Third, there's friction. It points in the opposite direction of wherever the vehicle would be sliding if there were no friction. You may be a little suspicious of that phrasing, and you should be. How do we know what direction that is? Well, we could calculate it but we don't have to. Let's take a look at the diagram of the situation, conveniently found on the Wikipedia article on the inclined plane: The gravitational force downward is mg, and the normal force is N. The terms with sine and cosine are just the gravitational force expressed in components - those two forces are exactly equivalent to the downward vertical mg. We do know from Newton's laws that F = ma, i.e,, the sum of all the forces F is equal to the mass times the acceleration. In the situation in the video, the total acceleration parallel to the track is zero. The motorcycles neither ascend nor descend once they reach their cruising altitude, so to speak. But that doesn't mean there's no acceleration. If there were no acceleration, the vehicles would continue in straight lines, sinking into the track like ghosts. Instead, the riders are essentially orbiting; their acceleration is directed toward the center of the circle. Their speed doesn't change, but their direction does. From freshman physics, we know the force required to keep an object in uniform circular motion is F = v^2/r, toward the center of the circle of radius r. But looking at the diagram, it's easy to see that N points toward the center of the circle, and so does the parallel component of mg. The frictional force f doesn't, and so even if there were no friction and the track were made of ice, N and mg could produce the required acceleration, keeping the riders in place. Now I'm going to depart from the diagram just a bit to make the math easier. Instead of decomposing mg into parts with respect to the plane, I'm going to decompose N into vertical and horizontal components with respect to the ground. Since the cars neither rise nor fall, the vertical component of N has to be equal to the downward force mg: Therefore: The only horizontal force is the horizontal component of N, and it has to be equal to the force needed for circular motion: But we already figured out what N was, so we can substitute: Now with we can solve for v, the speed necessary to stay orbiting the wall even in the absence of friction: Because sin/cos = tan, and the m's cancel out. Which is nice - it means that it's equally easy (or hard) for the heavy cars and light motorcycles to do the trick, provided they can actually get up to that speed and provided they're both not too big with respect to the turning radius r. So how fast do they have to go? It's hard to estimate what r is, but we can guess perhaps 10 meters. The angle is also tough, but let's guess 70 degrees just as an estimate. That gives us a value of about 16.4 m/s, or 36 miles per hour. To my unpracticed eye this seems a bit high, but then I've probably overestimated the angle. A 60 degree incline would mean 29mph, for instance. Either way though, it's pretty clearly doable for motorcycles and cars alike. I don't know what the Indian equivalent of OSHA might think, but the laws of physics are fine with this bit of daring. Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

That's right - contrary to what many religiously believe, it is the inability to grow more fat during times of energy surpluss, rather than the excess of fat which appears to directly contribute to the metabolic consequence often associated with obesity.
A recent article in the New Scientist shines some light on this issue;
Obesity kills, everyone knows that. But is it possible that we've been looking at the problem in the wrong way? It seems getting fatter may be part of your body's defense against the worst effects of unhealthy eating, rather than their direct cause.
While the article goes on to discuss some interesting new research, I feel the author misses an opportunity to really challenge the overwhelming dogma that too much fat, per se, is the cause of metabolic consequence of obesity. From my experience, it is much easier to get the point across by investigating the obvious anomalies or outliers to the often thought direct relationship between excess adiposity and disease.
Read the rest of this post... | Read the comments on this post... Also check out the featured ScienceBlog of the week: Collective Imagination

What the…what?
Apparently, a pest control company in the UK has decided to drum up business by COMPLETELY MAKING SHIT UP. This image shows some of the numbers of insects estimated to be on public transportation, as reported in a newspaper that picked up on a (now expunged of fake numbers) press release by the company Rentokil. Ben Goldacre was on the case: “After a bit of prodding, its PR company, Brands2Life, explained: no buses or trains were studied.
How did people get the wrong end of the stick? I have no way of knowing, as Brands2Life and Rentokil both declined to show me what they had sent to journalists but, in any case, contrary to what was said earlier, these numbers did not come from measurements and counts – they are based on a “theoretical model.” As Ben goes on to explain, the assumptions that were made to generate those numbers included an unlimited food supply, completely unchecked reproduction, and survival of roach offspring at 100%.  Which, as anyone who knows anything about biology, is complete and utter shite.  Public transportation is regularly cleaned and fumigated. And they are not filled with an infinite food supply, nor do stampeding commuters never create mortality for little creatures that are trampled.   Any introductory biology class covers exponential growth, and how it is the potential for living populations–but very rarely the reality! The whole fiasco was a shameful attempt by either the company, the company’s PR agency, or both, to drum up entomophobia. And, by extension, business. Yes, roaches and bed bugs are a reality. But no, there are not 50 bedbugs on the average bus in London!!!  Cripes.
There is an acronym I learned in the dot.com world when I worked there: PIDOMA.  It stands for “Pull It Directly Out of My Ass.”  This is where these numbers came from. Since Rentokil have a history of changing things after the fact, I took screen-shots of their current blog post and the news story; you can find them at Flickr.  They get a zombie roach, since clearly something has eaten their brains.  I hope that the National Pest Management Association will issue a statement strongly condemning this company and it’s PR mess. (Also: BEN! DUDE! Why did you not invite me to the UK to help out with this?)
Filed under: Entomology, Insects, Ranting (general), Science, Skepticism, WTF Tagged: bed bug, FAIL, pest control, rentokil, roach

I'm envious of Steve Novella. No, the reason isn't his vastly greater influence in the skeptical community than mine, his podcast The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, or the fact that he gets called a lot more for commentary when something involving quackery versus science-based medicine comes up. He's earned that, having been at this a lot longer than me and under his own name. No, what irritates me is that he somehow manages to get homeopaths to make videos like this trashing him: "Homeopathy: The persecuted Jew of modern Nazi fascist medicine"? Isn't "Nazi fascist" a bit redundant? Maybe not; I guess you could argue that Nazi-ism is just one variety of fascism. Be that as it may, I had considered siccing the a certain undead Führer on John Benneth, but decided that his rant was too incoherent even to be the product of a brain chomping by the Hitler Zombie. Even the Hitler Zombie, being of course a zombie, leaves a few milligrams of gray matter left after one of his feasts, but Benneth's incoherent tirade doesn't show signs of even a single functioning neuron behind it. Read the rest of this post... | Read the comments on this post...

I wasn’t positive what to think about this one when I first heard about it.  It’s not quite the kind of thing that I typically go for, but it’s close enough that I thought I ought to give it a shot, plus other similar shows I’ve given a chance in the past have ended up being very good. Just as a reminder, there will be spoilers.  If you don’t want to know how it ends, don’t read any further.  If I spoil anything for you, it’s your own damn fault. Our story opens with Tanaka Ainosuke, a junior high school student, undergoing a cornea transplant of his blind left eye.  The cornea comes from his older brother, Yumehito, who is voluntarily giving his cornea so Ainosuke can pursue his promising artistic skill.  The transplant is a success, but within a few days, Ainosuke hears that his brother has died in a laboratory accident at his job.  He finds an envelope that his brother left for him, containing 2 million yen (about $200k), but has no idea where his brother would have gotten that kind of money.   The police are quick to sweep it under the rug as an accident, but Ainosuke has started to see images in his left eye that he cannot explain; ghostly pictures of things he’s never seen before, that he can only assume come from his older brother’s experiences.  The police don’t want to listen to him, they’ve closed the case and it’s too much trouble to re-investigate, so Ainosuke and his high school nurse, Sayama Hitomi, go out on their own to solve the case.  Along the way, they discover many disconcerting facts about Ainosuke’s brother and eventually, they find that Yumehito has faked his own death and is, in fact, the leader of a criminal organization.  This sets up the plot of the upcoming series, a fight between Ainosuke, who with his new eye can see what his brother is planning and Yumehito, who sees this as a challenge and will continue to try to carry out his criminal campaign of terror.  Who will win?  It’s anyone’s guess but I’m betting on Ainosuke. I think that, at least at the beginning, the most annoying character in the special was Sayama Hitomi, bumbling high school nurse and clear obsessive/compulsive.  She goes on extensive shopping trips when she’s stressed, then spends her days worrying about how she’s going to pay for it all, thus keeping the cycle going.  She also has an incredibly difficult time not doing things she’s told not to do.  If there’s a sign that says “don’t touch,” she’s sure to touch anyhow.  She goes places she’s not allowed, does things she’s forbidden to do and often, it works out for the best.  She starts off really pretty whiny and worthless but over time, she starts to give some insights to Ainosuke and becomes more of a partner than a pest, even though, let’s be honest, she’s got a lot of problems that are just intended as comedy relief. As far as the acting, Yamada Ryosuke, who plays Ainosuke, does an excellent job.  He also played Amakusa Ryu in the well-reviewed Detective Academy Q a number of years ago.  Ishigami Kuniko, who plays Hitomi, also does a pretty good job being an annoying twit, which I’m not sure is a compliment.  She hasn’t been in anything else I’ve seen although she does have a reasonably long resume.  And of course, Yokoyama Kimitaka, who plays Ainosuke’s older brother Yumehito, does a pretty decent job too, but he isn’t seen on screen all that much in this special so we’ll have to see how he performs in the actual series.  Like Kuniko, he hasn’t really been in anything else I recognized, but I have some pretty narrow tastes so that’s not surprising.  I also really liked the performance of Terawaki Yasufumi, who plays the police detective Ohuchi Kenjo, who is constantly seen trying to psych himself up when he leaps into danger. “I’m good enough, I can succeed!” I think the special is interesting, but mostly as a setup for the currently-airing 11-episode TV series that can really expand on the whole “brothers-at-odds” plot.  It gives you all the background, introduces you to the characters, gives you a feel for the kind of thing you’ll be in for in the series, but otherwise isn’t anything particularly amazing in it’s own right.  I’m looking at it as a 2-hour pilot movie for a TV series, not as a standalone movie of it’s own.  That’s not to say you shouldn’t see it, but only as a prelude to the Hidarime Tantei Eye series, which I’ll review separately after I’ve seen it all. Click here to view the embedded video. ***½~ (3.6/5)

LOST Slapdown, Part 7



LOST Untangled - Recon

Our recording of the lecture yesterday may have hit some hiccups - I'll keep you posted. Either way, in the mean time, here are some other videos to enjoy.

First, here's a recent one posted by the BioLogos Foundation:



And then here's part one of a six-part sequence on YouTube with an audio recording of a longer lecture by John Walton: